A Balanced Market on Paper, but a Calm Buyers’ Market in Reality
The Ottawa Real Estate Board’s October 2025 stats paint a picture of balance, modest price gains, stable inventory, and a measured pace heading into winter. But for those of us on the ground, working with buyers and sellers every single day, it’s clear that conditions are tilting further toward buyers than the official narrative suggests.
Sales and Prices: Slight Uptick Amid Seasonal Slowdown
According to OREB, 1,177 homes were sold in October, up 8% from September but down slightly year-over-year (-1.2%).
The average sale price reached $709,002, up 2.7% month-over-month and 5.7% year-over-year, while the MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) benchmark for Ottawa sits at $622,700, virtually flat from last year (+0.7%)
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At first glance, those numbers suggest stability, but that “stability” comes from a slower pace of activity and more negotiation flexibility for buyers. Sellers are adjusting expectations, and price reductions are becoming increasingly common in many segments.
Inventory: Still High Despite Modest Tightening
OREB reports 4,232 active listings, down 3.6% from September but 21% higher than last year.
The months of inventory eased from 4.0 to 3.6, which technically lands within “balanced” territory, but in practice, the feeling in the market is different as we do have less buyers, and even less sellers who are not sure if selling now makes sense.
Homes are sitting longer, and motivated sellers are pricing more aggressively to stand out especially if they have to sell. Median days on market rose to 26 days (up from 24 last year)
Segment Breakdown:
Single-family homes averaged $854,078, up 6.5% year-over-year, but the number of new listings remains high at 1,174. Absorption is slower than headline stats suggest.
Townhouses saw a slight pullback in prices (-1.2% y/y), averaging $556,302, while inventory for this segment climbed over 60%.
Condos/apartments are facing the toughest headwinds, only 152 sales, down 21% year-over-year, with over 800 active listings and 5.6 months of supply
These numbers confirm what we’re witnessing firsthand: buyers have more choices and negotiating power across almost every price range.
Rates, Demand, and What’s Next
The Bank of Canada’s late-October rate cut to 2.25% offered a little psychological relief and some optimism for 2026, but borrowing costs remain historically high compared to price levels.
We expect slow price declines, not dramatic drops , over the next 12–24 months as the market continues to realign affordability. When rates fall further and prices adjust a little more, pent up demand will return at that time.
Our Take from the Ground
From the Ottawa Home Group team’s perspective, calling this a “balanced market” doesn’t fully capture what’s happening in real life. Yes, on paper, the stats line up neatly, but in the trenches, we’re seeing:
More conditional offers coming back,
Price adjustments to spark activity,
Buyers regaining leverage,
And sellers having to work harder for each deal.
This is a buyers’ market in slow motion, one that will reward patience and preparation on both sides.
Advice for Buyers and Sellers
For Buyers: You have more room to negotiate and can be strategic. Inventory levels give you options, but be ready to move when the right home appears, as well priced listings still sell fast.
For Sellers: Pricing is key. The days of overshooting the market are gone. Position your home correctly from day one, ensure it shows beautifully, and be open to negotiation.
Looking Ahead
Heading into winter, expect fewer listings but continued selective demand. The Ottawa market remains fundamentally healthy, yet cautious. As prices and interest rates slowly find their new equilibrium, 2026 could set the stage for a more natural recovery but we are not optimistic as we do think it can take more than 1 year for balance to find itself in the market because of the whirl winds of last 5 years.
